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“Trump … Looms Over It All”: Potential GOP Gov Candidates Face “Long Shot” in New York

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“Trump … Looms Over It All”: Potential GOP Gov Candidates Face “Long Shot” in New York

Donald Trump “is seeking more influence in his home state” – and in the process, upending New York’s shadow Republican primary for governor. The President’s decision to give Mike Lawler’s gubernatorial dreams the kiss of death by endorsing his re-election to the House is just the latest sign that Trump – and no one else – will decide the GOP’s next nominee in the Empire State. That means the eventual GOP nominee “would have to answer for Trump” in a state where the strong majority of voters disapprove of the president’s agenda. It’s no wonder political watchers agree that New York is an “uphill battle” for Republicans “where winning will be difficult.”

Read more about Trump’s growing influence in New York’s increasingly hostile Republican primary:

Gothamist: Elise Stefanik’s long shot to be the next Republican NY governor

  • Elise Stefanik has a national profile and is one of the top Republican leaders in the House of Representatives. She’s talked about as a future speaker of the House, building on years of recruiting and supporting candidates, as well as a tightly cultivated relationship with President Donald Trump.

  • Is she really going to blow that up to run a long-shot bid for governor of New York?

  • Winning would be difficult. No Republican has been elected to statewide office in New York since George Pataki in 2002. There are about 3 million more enrolled Democrats than Republicans in the state. Democrats have all the advantages of incumbency.

  • And Stefanik would have to answer for Trump. She’s become a staunch backer of the president after first winning election in 2014 as a moderate. A Siena College Research Institute poll last month found voters disagree with Trump’s plans for tariffs and shuttering federal agencies. His favorability rating was 40%.

City & State: Losers: Mike Lawler

  • Rep. Mike Lawler has said he’s planning to make a decision on a gubernatorial run in June, but it looks like President Donald Trump made that decision for him in May. Between Trump’s pointed endorsement of Lawler’s 2026 reelection bid – rather than a potential statewide run – and Rep. Elise Stefanik’s poll numbers, it’s starting to look like Lawler’s future is being simplified. At least he can look forward to a congressional reelection fight, which is looking more difficult by the day.

Politico: Mike Lawler will go his own way — or so he says

  • The subtext of President Donald Trump’s recent reelection endorsement of Rep. Mike Lawler appeared clear enough: Stay, fight and keep your battleground New York seat red. Also, shelve your ambitions to become governor.

  • Trump — whose Truth Social posts can make or break political careers — looms over it all. The president is seeking more influence in his home state, where he built his real estate and TV businesses — and where Democrats successfully prosecuted him.

  • [… Lawler is] also factoring in how potential cuts to Medicaid, federal immigration policy and the impact of Trump’s tariffs might impact his political future.

  • Aside from Lawler, upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman are top gubernatorial contenders, and their allegiances to Trump would likely give one of them a primary edge over Lawler. Then, of course, there’s the general election, which would be an uphill battle …

  • Several New York Republicans told POLITICO they see his glowing endorsement of Lawler’s House bid as clearing the path for Stefanik to run for governor.

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