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Rauner’s #1! National Journal Moves IL Gov Race Up to #1 Most Likely to Flip Parties

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After Rauner’s Poor Primary Results, Race Vaults from #5 to #1 Most Likely to Flip

Governor Bruce Rauner’s poor primary performance keeps moving the Illinois governor’s race up the rankings as the National Journal’s Hotline ranked it the #1 most likely race to flip parties next year (it was previously ranked #5). Zach Cohen and Kyle Trygstad of Hotline wrote:

Rauner is the most vulnerable governor, and his seat is the Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. Democratic nominee J.B. Pritzker won 200,000 more votes in his decisive March primary than Rauner, who won renomination by just 2 points. The latest polling puts Pritzker, heir to the Hyatt fortune, up 18 points in a state that Hillary Clinton won by a similar margin, and his odds further improved when Rauner’s alienation of the Right led to a third-party challenge from GOP state Sen. Sam McCann…

The new ranking coincides with Rauner return from Europe to find his base problem even worse. Before his trip, Rauner was merely failing to reunite his divided party after state Representative Jeanne Ives took 48% of the primary vote. Now, he returns home to find even more challenges after Republican state Senator Sam McCann joined the race and immediately began courting disgruntled Ives voters.
“Three years of failed leadership and a party unity problem add up to make Bruce Rauner the most vulnerable incumbent in the nation,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “Rauner’s record of failure has turned off Democrats and Independents — and has inspired Republicans to line up and hold him accountable. It’s no wonder Illinois is ranked as the most likely governorship to flip in America.”