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Nonpartisan Race Raters Shift GA and MA Gov Races Towards Democrats

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Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball Make Massive Ratings Changes in GA and MA as Stacey Abrams Gets In and Charlie Baker Drops Out

After Stacey Abrams declared she’s running and Gov. Charlie Baker’s decision to drop out, nonpartisan race analysts are shifting the Georgia and Massachusetts governor races towards Democrats.

In Georgia, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up, stating that “Kemp is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent on the map,” while also noting that he’s “staring down a potentially divisive GOP primary egged on by former President Trump.”

In Massachusetts, Cook Political moved the race from Solid Republican to Lean Democrat. Crystal Ball went a step further, moving their rating from Likely Republican to Likely Democratic. Cook Political described Baker’s decision as “a major blow to Republicans that directly results from former President Trump’s meddling in races against incumbent governors.”

Across both states, Trump’s iron grip over the party remains a major problem for Republicans and the RGA.  In fact, Trump responded to Abrams’ announcement by attacking Kemp, saying, “the MAGA base will just not vote for [Kemp] … but some good Republican will run, and some good Republican will get my endorsement.”

A Trump-backed bid from a candidate like former Sen. David Perdue would drain Kemp’s early fundraising and bruise the eventual Republican nominee ahead of the general election.

Meanwhile, with Baker and Lt. Gov. Karen Polito out in Massachusetts, filling the void is far-right, Trump-endorsed Geoff Diehl. Cook Political wrote, “It’s clear that Diehl all but surely cannot win a statewide race.”

“Trump’s iron grip over the party is a major problem for the RGA, as they continue to fail to protect their incumbents,” said DGA Deputy Communications Director Sam Newton. “With Stacey Abrams drawing unprecedented grassroots energy, Brian Kemp facing attacks from his own party, and a clear path for extremist Geoff Diehl to win the nomination, Georgia and Massachusetts Democrats are gearing up to flip two major governors’ seats in 2022.”

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