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No Summer Fun for Rauner As National Analyst Moves Race to “Likely Democrat”
Analyst “Typically Gives Incumbents the Benefit of the Doubt” – But Not in Rauner’s Case
How’s this for a summer read? The Center for Politics’ Crystal Ball just moved the Illinois Governor race rating to “Likely Democratic.” The national political analysts noted that “many Republicans are displeased with Rauner,” leading to the entrance of Republican State Senator Sam McCann on the Conservative Party ticket who is “likely to peel at least a few Republican votes away from the incumbent, making Rauner’s reelection path even more difficult.”
Crystal Ball wrote it “typically gives incumbents the benefit of the doubt, but there has been no good news for Rauner in 2018.” Read an excerpt below:
“To the east, the Illinois gubernatorial contest appears increasingly uncompetitive. Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) began the 2018 cycle as the most endangered incumbent Republican in the country and his position has really only worsened since then. Rauner only narrowly won renomination in the March primary against state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R), indicating the GOP base’s frustration with the incumbent. Following the primary, the Crystal Ball shifted its rating in Illinois from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Since the primary, every general election poll has found billionaire businessman J.B. Pritzker (D) comfortably ahead of Rauner.”
“Bruce Rauner needed a turnaround this summer, but the most vulnerable incumbent is finding he cannot escape his three years of failed leadership,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “With no positive record to run on, Rauner has been reduced to running desperate negative ads and cozying up to Donald Trump.”