MEMO: New York’s MAGA Primary for Governor Is a Worst-Case Scenario for Republicans

To: Interested Parties
From: Kevin Donohoe, Democratic Governors Association
Date: December 9, 2025
Subject: New York’s MAGA Primary for Governor Is a Worst-Case Scenario for Republicans

___________________________

With Bruce Blakeman’s campaign launch today, New York’s GOP gubernatorial primary is now about winning the support of one man: Donald Trump. Elise Stefanik and Blakeman are both openly and furiously campaigning for Trump’s endorsement – in a state where the President and his agenda of gutting health care and jacking up costs is deeply unpopular.

GOP leaders publicly hoped and prayed to avoid a damaging feud between two MAGA darlings, but today their worst nightmare has come true: a vicious, deeply personal MAGA melee between Stefanik and Blakeman. Both candidates are set to spend the next months jockeying for a Trump endorsement that may never come – severely damaging their general election prospects as they do so.

The NY GOP didn’t want a primary and tried to stop one from happening. Now, their worst nightmare is coming true:

• NY GOP Chairman Ed Cox memorably proclaimed, “There will not be a Republican primary.” He was wrong.

• In June of this year, one NY GOP observer said, “I think a primary would be destructive. I think that there are too few Republicans in the state.” His name was Bruce Blakeman.

In the past few weeks, Bruce Blakeman has made clear just how MAGA he is willing to go to beat Elise Stefanik:

• On a statewide press tour, Bruce Blakeman pointedly blasted state GOP leaders for insisting on Stefanik’s viability and inevitability as a general election nominee, saying “We are not going to have a coronation.”

• • Donald Trump is going to make both candidates sweat this one out: Politico reports that Blakeman believes, based on what Trump has told him personally, that “the president is going to play it out and see what happens at the convention” rather than endorsing. Trump’s praise yesterday for both Blakeman and Stefanik makes clear he is more than happy to let both candidates continue to grovel for his support.

Which brings us to the single most important factor in this primary: Donald Trump.

Both candidates are falling over themselves to defend Trump’s toxic record – take it from them:

• Bruce Blakeman made clear to right-wing radio host Sid Rosenberg “I support President Trump 100%.”

• • And Trump has already branded Blakeman with the same “100% MAGA” label that doomed New Jersey GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli by 14 points.

• • Blakeman has advised “My message to Republicans is, first of all: Don’t run away from Trump, embrace him,” even admitting (his words) “I would never say anything in public that would embarrass him.”

• • Blakeman once again bragged about his support for Donald Trump to Fox News, saying that he “never ran away” from his unwavering backing of Trump’s extreme agenda. He even said that Donald Trump “was right” to accuse lawmakers of sedition and treason and threaten them with punishment by death.

• Elise Stefanik calls herself Trump’s “top ally” in D.C. and “the deciding vote” for his expensive, harmful policies – voting for them 100% of the time this year.

• Experts know that “both of them are going to vie for Donald Trump’s affection and endorsement,” according to Newsday – meaning “either candidate could be poised to get a nod from Trump.”

The NY GOP’s primary picture is dismal: A race to the bottom for an endorsement by Donald Trump that may never come, between two candidates who built their brands on total fealty to the MAGA movement.

The gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last month saw two hardcore MAGA cheerleaders defeated in landslides. Voters knew those candidates were for Trump, not them – but to emerge from the NY GOP primary, Stefanik and Blakeman will spend long months arguing they are Trump’s number one champion – a losing argument in a New York state general election if there ever was one.