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ICYMI: Gonzales: “Democrats on Offense” in 2017-18 Gubernatorial Races

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Elections Analyst Nathan Gonzales: Gov Races ‘Most Efficient Way’ to Rebuild Democratic Party

New national rankings from elections analyst Nathan Gonzales show Democrats are in a position to make strong gains in the 2017-18 gubernatorial election cycle. In an article for Roll Call this week, Gonzales wrote that Democrats are poised to go on offense in gubernatorial contests – a contrast with the Senate map in 2018. These governors races can not only rebuild the party, but lay the groundwork for the 2021 redistricting fight, Gonzales wrote.
Highlights from Gonzales’ analysis include:
On the 2017-18 map

  • Democrats are on offense in gubernatorial contests,” They’ll happily target states Republicans won in two good cycles (2010 and 2014) and now must defend in a midterm election with Donald Trump in the Oval Office.”

On rebuilding the Democratic Party

  • “Democrats are eager to rebound from a shocking 2016, and winning as many governorships as possible might be the most efficient way for the party to regain its footing in the short term and lay a foundation for the future.”

On redistricting

  • “Gubernatorial races might feel irrelevant in and distant from Washington … but the next batch of races will have a profound impact on which party controls the House next decade. …”
  • “Overall, Democrats believe they stand to gain up to 44 House seats if ‘fair’ maps were instituted in 18 states. They currently need to gain 24 seats to retake the majority.”
  • “Governors in 35 states have veto power over congressional maps. And of those 35, 28 will be on the ballot this year or next. In some of these states, Republicans have wide majorities in the state Legislature, which means one gubernatorial victory can neutralize some of the GOP’s redistricting power.”

The Roll Call article and video can be found here. The entire report can be found here.