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ICYMI: Cook Political Moves 3 Key Governor Races Towards Democrats
Today, Cook Political shifted 3 key governors’ races towards Democrats, acknowledging the strong position Democrats are in across the country to win back states. Following far-right Republican Scott Wagner’s primary victory, Pennsylvania was shifted from Lean D to Likely D. Cook also moved critical Republican-held seats in Ohio and Iowa from Lean R/Likely R to Toss Up.
See below for excerpts of Cook Political’s write up.
“The stakes for control of governorships are high given that most of the Governors elected this year will be in office during redistricting in 2021. And, races are starting to become engaged and more interesting.”
“Given the near historic number of seats Republicans hold and mid-term trends, it would seem that they have nowhere to go but down. They are playing defense this cycle, while Democrats are working to put as many GOP-held seats on the board as possible.”
“Republicans had hoped to give Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf a competitive challenger, but their nominee, state Sen. and wealthy businessman Scott Wagner, is probably too conservative for the general election. As a result, the race moves to the Likely Democrat column.”
“Reynolds is running for a term in her own right after becoming Governor when Terry Branstad resigned to become Ambassador to China. She will face Fred Hubbell, former president of Equitable Iowa and former Acting Director of the Department of Economic Development under Democratic Gov. Chet Culver. Hubbell easily won a crowded primary, outperforming expectations. This contest has moved to the Toss Up column.”
“In the open seat in Ohio, Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine will face off against Democrat Richard Cordray, former head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. There are three recent polls: one shows DeWine up by six points, another has Cordray up by two points and the third has Cordray up by seven points. It is extremely unlikely that Cordray is up by seven points and he may not even be ahead by two points, but the takeaway from these surveys is that this race is within the margin of error. As a result it has moved to the Toss Up column.”