MEMO: Despite Millions in Spending Against Aaron Ford, the Nevada Governor’s Race is Tied

FROM: Chris Sloan, DGA Political Director

TO: Interested Parties

DATE: Wednesday, July 22, 2026

SUBJECT: Despite Millions in Spending Against Aaron Ford, the Nevada Governor’s Race is Tied

New polling from Public Policy Polling from July 15-16 of 558 likely general election voters shows that the Nevada governor’s race is a dead heat at 44 percent to 44 percent between Democratic nominee Attorney General Aaron Ford and Republican Governor Joe Lombardo.

The results are a significant warning sign for Lombardo. The governor and his allies have spent over $27 million against Ford, but the race has only tightened in recent months and is now tied. Meanwhile, the Ford campaign has not started spending significant resources on paid communication and has ample room for growth.

The poll also finds that Trump is deeply underwater in Nevada and voters are seriously concerned about Lombardo’s refusal to stand up to Trump. The failures of Lombardo and Trump’s harmful policies are making the state’s economy suffer as costs rise and massive cuts to health care affect families everywhere. With Lombardo continuing to align himself with Trump – including calling the president his “commanding officer” in newly revealed audio – it is clear that the governor’s close ties to Trump are a major vulnerability with voters.

Overall, this polling is just the latest data that makes clear Joe Lombardo is the most vulnerable incumbent governor up for re-election this November.

See below for more key findings:

• In a head-to-head matchup, Ford and Lombardo are tied 44 percent to 44 percent, with 12 percent of voters not sure.

• 45 percent of voters have “an unfavorable opinion” of the governor – including 68 percent of Latino voters – compared to just 39 percent with “a favorable opinion.”

• 54 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance compared to 43 percent that approve of his job performance.

• 53 percent of voters said that Lombardo “doesn’t stand up to Trump enough” compared to only 30 percent of voters that think Lombardo “stands up to Trump about the right amount.”

• 55 percent of voters said that “things have gotten off on the wrong track” in Nevada, compared to only 30 percent of voters that think “things are headed in the right direction.”
  • Among Latino voters this number is even higher, with 74 percent believing Nevada is “on the wrong track.”

• 47 percent of voters – an overwhelming plurality of the electorate – agree with Ford that Lombardo has not done enough to deal with Nevada’s high costs, including 57 percent of Latino voters.

• Lombardo’s efforts to blame high costs on global forces are falling flat with Nevada voters, with only 39 percent of both independents and voters who did not go to college believing that is the case.

• This poll shows that Ford has a real opportunity to grow with undecided voters – who lean Democratic:
  • Kamala Harris won undecided voters in this race by a 47 point margin.
  • Donald Trump is underwater by 66 points among undecided voters.
  • 72 percent of undecided voters believe Nevada is on the wrong track – and only 4 percent think the state is on the right track.

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