Cook Political Report: Alaska Gubernatorial Race Moves to “Toss Up”

Cook Political Report: Alaska Gubernatorial Race Moves to “Toss Up”

Cook Political Report has shifted its rating for Alaska’s gubernatorial race to “Toss Up,” spotlighting how Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (JKT) is “opening up an advantage” with new polling showing him “winning independent voters by 34 points.” JKT continues to run a strong campaign focused on bringing change and progress from the failed policies of Mike Dunleavy, supporting Alaska schools, and driving down costs.

Meanwhile, Republicans are “rightly worried” about their chances as the three GOP candidates in the race offer the same status quo agenda that is failing Alaskans and are unwilling to stand up for Alaska against out-of-state special interests, corporations, and billionaires.

Cook Political Report: Alaska Governor Moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up

• Last week, we shifted the four-way Alaska gubernatorial race one step in Democrats’ direction into the Lean Republican column. But this week we have gotten further evidence that the lone Democrat in the race, former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, is opening up an advantage that merits putting the contest into Toss Up as the race continues to develop.

• As we noted earlier, Republicans are rightly worried that their three candidates listed on the ballot are splitting the vote in the ranked-choice contest.
• A bipartisan AARP poll conducted by FabrizioWard/Impact Research shows Kreiss-Tomkins taking 40% in the first round of voting, followed by conservative activist Bernadette Wilson at 20%, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson at 14% and former Attorney General Treg Taylor at 7%, with 18% undecided. In a ranked choice simulation, Kreiss- Tomkins eventually wins the contest 55%-45%. Private Democratic polling also tracks with the AARP poll results.

• Kreiss-Tomkins is winning independent voters by 34 points, also helping him solidify his frontrunner status.

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