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After Rauner’s “Difficult Night,” Another Analyst Moves ILGOV Race Towards Democrats

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Rauner’s Poor Showing “Confirmed His Overall Weakness”

Another election analyst is shifting their race rating after Governor Bruce Rauner earned only 51.4% of the Republican vote Tuesday night. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is moving the Illinois gubernatorial race from “Tossup” to “Lean Democratic” based off Rauner’s disastrous primary showing:
Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) endured a difficult night on Tuesday. Although he won his party’s primary to earn a reelection shot in November, the contest in some ways confirmed his overall weakness as the most endangered incumbent Republican governor facing the voters in 2018. As such, the Crystal Ball is moving the Illinois gubernatorial contest from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, the first time in the 2018 cycle that we have rated an incumbent U.S. senator, U.S. House member, or governor as an underdog for reelection. Rauner’s vulnerabilities are two-fold: his party base is not solidly behind him — the GOP primary made this abundantly clear — and he faces an energized Democratic Party in what is typically a blue state.”
Crystal Ball’s rating change is the second in as many days – yesterday, Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzales changed his rating from “Tilt Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” Rauner desperately needs to move on from the primary, but he still has not talked with his primary opponent.