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Third Nonpartisan Race Rater Predicts GOP In Danger of Losing Maryland Governorship in 2022

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As GOP Gov. Larry Hogan’s approval ratings take a plunge and yet another nonpartisan election analyst rates the seat as vulnerable, Republicans’ chances of holding onto the governorship in Maryland in 2022 look bleaker every day.


Today, FiveThirtyEight rated the Maryland governor’s race as “Toss Up/Lean D” – the third race rater to rank the seat as vulnerable in 2022. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have ranked Maryland as the state most in danger of flipping parties next year.


FiveThirtyEight said Maryland will be “particularly challenging” for the GOP to keep red next year. Gov. Hogan has angered many Trump activists with his criticism of the Trump administration, and his approval rating has dropped 14 points. Enhancing Democrats’ chances of winning in Maryland is the fractured state of the Maryland GOP, especially as GOP primaries in nearby states like Virginia are races to the far-right about Trumpism.


Rep. Andy Harris, the de facto head of the Maryland GOP, is suspected of eyeing a gubernatorial run in 2022. Harris has been a committed ally to Trump’s dangerous agenda, standing by him even after Trump-inspired rioters attacked the Capitol and killed a police officer. Harris voted in favor of challenging the election results following the insurrection, and he also recently voted against the American Rescue Plan, which was supported by 70% of Americans.


A run by a Trump acolyte like Harris could seal Republicans’ fate in 2022. Joe Biden carried Maryland by more than 30 points, and more Marylanders favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump in the 2020 election than they favored Clinton over Trump in 2016.


“With Hogan’s approval ratings taking a nosedive, the Republican base fracturing over loyalty to Trump, and the state turning increasingly blue, Republicans’ chances of keeping Maryland red in 2022 look pretty grim,” said DGA Deputy Communications Director Sam Newton. “And with Trump’s hold over Republican primaries, whoever the nominee is will likely be too extreme to win in a general election. We look forward to electing a Democratic governor in Maryland next year.”