Cook Political Report: “Stefanik’s Uphill New York Governor Bid May Get Even Steeper”

Cook Political Report: “Stefanik’s Uphill New York Governor Bid May Get Even Steeper”

A new Cook Political Report analysis on the New York gubernatorial race makes one thing very clear: Elise Stefanik’s campaign for governor is facing a very, very uphill climb.

As Cook notes, Stefanik’s record of standing with Donald Trump and against New Yorkers on everything from health care to tariffs is creating huge hurdles for her campaign (and private panicking from Republicans). Other issues include a rushed and botched campaign rollout (her website was still in Latin on launch day) and a potential primary challenge from Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman that “risks draining Stefanik of resources and momentum” and setting up a months-long MAGA melee in New York.

It’s no wonder Cook writes that “there’s little indication that Stefanik is in a position to put [New York] in play in a general election.”Read more from The Cook Political Report:

• Unseating Hochul was a lofty goal to begin with, given New York’s considerable Democratic lean and the high cost of airing ads in its many media markets. But the possibility of a lengthy GOP primary between two ardent Trump loyalists puts another huge hurdle in Stefanik’s way.

• If Blakeman does run, the two would likely spend much of the next seven months locked in a race to prove their fealty to the president. Such a showdown risks alienating the general electorate in a state that handily rejected Trump in all three of his campaigns, and where Hochul is considerably more popular than she was in 2022.
• Sensing Blakeman’s impending campaign, Stefanik hit the launch button on a bid that may not have been quite ready to go public. And though polling shows she would begin with a clear advantage over Blakeman if he runs, several sources pointed out that Trump has yet to offer an official endorsement of her campaign. When Blakeman told Trump — a friend and political ally — earlier this month that he was considering a bid for the governorship, he claims the president “didn’t discourage” him from giving it a go.
• Republicans need to pitch a perfect game to compete statewide in New York, and even the spectre of a messy primary would shrink their already slim path of flipping the office. The GOP last won New York’s governorship in 2002.
• All the GOP drama is welcome news for Democrats, who are more than happy to watch Hochul’s potential opponents fight for Trump’s affection in a cycle when the president is likely to be a political anchor in New York.
• Hochul allies believe that even without a fierce primary, Stefanik would be deeply vulnerable to hits over her ties to Trump. They note that the congresswoman has proudly described herself as “one of his top allies on Capitol Hill” and touted her “deciding vote” on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which slashed Medicaid funding. Stefanik’s decade-long stint in Congress also provides Democrats with a lengthy record to exploit on the campaign trail, including her 2022 vote against codifying abortion rights after the fall of Roe v. Wade.
• Though Trump made considerable inroads in New York last year, he still finished with just 43% of the vote statewide. That means Stefanik would have to outrun the president’s sagging approval rating and win hundreds of thousands of Kamala Harris voters to pull off a general election victory — an extremely tall task.

• Democrats aligned with Hochul cite her inflation refund checks and her bell-to-bell ban on cell phone use in schools as reasons for her growing popularity. They also point out that she’s taken strong steps to curb crime by increasing the presence of police officers at New York City Subway stations.
• This race was always ambitious for Republicans, and right now there’s little indication that Stefanik is in a position to put it in play in a general election. That goes double if she gets sucked into a primary against Blakeman. It remains in the Likely Democrat column.

Read the entire story at The Cook Political Report.

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