Memo: The Path to 270 Runs through Democratic Governors

Today, the Democratic Governors Association released a memo to interested parties detailing how the path to a Biden-Harris White House runs through states governed by Democrats. 

Key points include:

• Since 2016, the DGA has unparalleled success in winning tough races across the country, including in nine states won by Trump in 2016.
• Since 2016, the DGA has gone from holding just 15 states to securing Democratic victories in 24, by flipping nine states and protecting all of our incumbents and open seats. 
• Democratic governors currently represent 288 electoral college votes.
• The DGA’s 2019 victories in Kentucky and Louisiana, states Trump won by 20 and 30 points respectively, prove that Democrats can win anywhere so long as they focus on the issues that matter the most to voters. 
• The kitchen table issues that ushered Democratic gubernatorial candidates to victory in 2018 and 2019 continue to resonate in 2020, with a sharper focus in the wake of uncertainty caused by the failed federal COVID-19 response. 

The full memo can be found below:

TO: Interested parties

FROM: Marshall Cohen, DGA Political Director

MEMO: Memo: The path to 270 runs through Democratic governors

DATE: August 19, 2020

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As former Vice President Joe Biden prepares to officially accept the Democratic nomination for president, eyes are turning to the path the Biden-Harris ticket will need to cut through the fall to victory in November. The roadmap needed by the Biden-Harris ticket to reach 270 electoral college votes runs directly through the states Trump won in 2016 that now have Democratic governors. Democratic governors currently represent 288 electoral college votes.

To successfully build the coalition of blue, purple, and red states needed to win back the White House, the Biden-Harris campaign should look to the successful playbook used by the Democratic Governors Association to win key races in 2017, 2018, and 2019. 

The DGA’s record of success

Since 2016, the DGA has unparalleled success in winning tough races across the country, including in nine states won by Trump in 2016. 

In 2017, the DGA helped deliver the opening counterpunch to the Trump administration in electing Ralph Northam governor of Virginia and taking back New Jersey by electing Phil Murphy after eight years of Chris Christie. In 2018, we flipped seven seats, winning in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and even ruby-red Kansas. Since Trump’s inauguration, we have gone from holding just 15 states to securing Democratic victories in 24, by flipping nine states and protecting all of our incumbents and open seats. Our 2019 victories in Kentucky and Louisiana, states Trump won by 20 and 30 points respectively, prove that Democrats can win anywhere so long as they focus on the issues that matter the most to voters. 

These kitchen-table issues – health care, education, and jobs – that were the centerpiece of our gubernatorial wins are continuing to define the 2020 presidential race, sharpened even more in the wake of uncertainty caused by the failed federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The presidential contest will come down to who voters believe best understands these issues and can offer up the practical solutions that best address the challenges American families face. 

What worked

The success of Democratic gubernatorial candidates across a diverse spread of states showed that a campaign focused on the kitchen table issues voters care about paves a path to victory. A message centered around protecting and expanding access to health care, investing in public education, and creating economic security resonated with voters from Oregon, to Nevada, to Michigan, to Maine. 

Once in office, Democratic governors’ priorities have remained tied to these key campaign promises. Governors don’t have the luxury of pontificating without taking action. Voters expect and demand results.

Washington D.C. is dysfunctional and Americans are exhausted by the progress stymied by Trump and his Republican enablers. Democratic governors offer a vision of a different country, where crises are met with competency, voting rights are expanded and protected, clean energy jobs help drive the economy forward, health care is affordable and accessible to everyone, a child receives a quality education no matter what their zip code, and there is real progress towards a more equal and just nation.  In the midst of a global pandemic, Democratic governors’ leadership has been based on science and facts, treating the virus as a serious threat to our health and economy. They have done so despite the Trump administration’s inability to do so.  

The roadmap: messaging and action

Health care: 

What they ran on:

• Candidates tapped into worries about the increasing fragility of access to affordable, quality care. Republican governors blocked Medicaid expansion and fought the ACA, while GOP candidates threatened to rip away coverage from hundreds of thousands of families. Democratic campaigns focused on plans to increase access to care while promising to codify key protections of the ACA and protect voters from the Trump administration’s harmful policies. 

What’s getting done: 

• MAINE – Gov. Janet MILLS expanded Medicaid on her first day in office, fulfilling a campaign pledge and respecting the will of Maine voters.
• NEVADA – Gov. Steve SISOLAK codified the ACA granted protections for individuals with pre-existing conditions into state law.
• COLORADO – Gov. Jared POLIS signed legislation targeting surprise billing by medical providers. 
• KENTUCKY – Gov. Andy BESHEAR rescinded harmful Medicaid work requirements as one of his first acts in office. 

Education:

What they ran on:

• Concerns over the condition of public schools and the lack of funding for classrooms were amplified in 2018 by the #RedforEd movement around the country. Republican governors showed their true priorities by cutting education budgets and leaving public schools behind. Democratic gubernatorial candidates responded by promising increases in education funding and teacher pay raises.

What’s getting done:

• NEW MEXICO – Gov. Michelle LUJAN GRISHAM signed a six percent pay increase for all public school staff into law.
• NEVADA – Gov. Steve SISOLAK signed the largest public education budget in Nevada’s state history. The funding also includes a salary raise for all Nevada public school educators. 
• KANSAS – Gov. Laura KELLY signed a bipartisan law in April that increases the state’s education funding by roughly $90 million a year. The new law led Kansas’ Supreme Court to declare the state was finally spending enough money on its public schools after almost a decade long legal battle. 

Economic security:

What they ran on:

• Republican governors had ignored or been slow to respond to stagnant wages, limited worker benefits, and a shifting economy without a qualified workforce to keep up. Voters were concerned not just about their job security if they or a loved one falls ill, but if their skills would be in demand through retirement. Democratic candidates focused on what was needed at every level to build a diverse economy – from investments in the workforce to big plans for infrastructure projects to increasing renewable energy projects in their states. 

What’s getting done:

• PENNSYLVANIA – Gov. Tom WOLF included an additional $10M in funding for Career and Technical Education programs in his 2019-2020 budget. State lawmakers supported the governor’s 2018 budget proposal for an initial $10M increase in vocational funding – the first increase in almost a decade. 
• MAINE – Gov. Janet MILLS has signed legislation advancing Maine’s offshore wind industry including a statewide initiative and participation in a federal task force.
• MICHIGAN – Gov. Gretchen WHITMER has worked with Michigan’s automakers to announce nearly 11,000 new auto jobs, the most ever announced in a single year in the history of Michigan’s economic development agency. Michigan’s deal with Fiat Chrysler is one of America’s largest automotive assembly plant deals of the last decade – adding over 6,000 jobs and generating $4.5 billion of investment, and opening the first new assembly plant in Detroit in 30 years.
• NEW MEXICO – Gov. Michelle LUJAN GRISHAM secured $10M in funding for the state’s Job Training Incentive Program to help expand the state’s economy into rural areas and new industries. 
• CONNECTICUT – Gov. Ned LAMONT signed legislation increasing the minimum wage to $15/hr by 2023.

COVID-19 pandemic:

What’s getting done:

• In the vacuum of leadership left by the Trump administration, Democratic governors took decisive action to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, save lives, and protect their respective state’s economy:
• Democratic governors acted faster than their Republican counterparts, issuing life-saving stay at home orders much earlier on in the pandemic.
  • As of April 4th,  all 24 Democratic governors had issued a stay at home order, but only 17 Republican governors (out of 26) had.
    • The median date for a Democratic governor to issue a stay at home order was March 24th
• Recent studies have shown that the shutdown order, directed by governors on a state-by-state basis, prevented up to 60 million COVID-19 cases. 
  • In Michigan alone, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s decision to implement a stay-at-home order that went into effect on March 24, may have saved tens of thousands of lives. 
• An Associated Press analysis of coronavirus data found one clear trend – who your governor is matters. New COVID-19 cases in states with Republican governors – regardless of how those states voted in the 2016 presidential election – were outpacing new cases in states run by a Democratic governor.
  • According to the AP: “That trend roughly reflects how the two parties’ governors have approached the pandemic. GOP governors generally have leaned more heavily in favor of lighter government restrictions on social gatherings and business operations. Democratic governors, on average, have embraced stricter restrictions and more forcefully advocated for caution.”
  • New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo called out the GOP’s failed response saying, “You played politics with this virus, and you lost. … It was never politics. It was always science.”

Summary:

The Democratic Governors Association’s historic 2018 and 2019 elections across a diverse range of states should be seen as a roadmap to the White House in 2020. The path to a Biden administration runs through the 24 states and 288 electoral college votes represented by Democratic governors. 

The kitchen table issues that ushered Democratic gubernatorial candidates to victory in 2018 and 2019 continue to resonate in 2020, with a sharper focus in the wake of uncertainty caused by the failed federal COVID-19 response. Democrats have delivered on many of their promises and will continue to fight for progress. In the era of Trump and dysfunction in D.C., the Biden-Harris ticket should look to the states to see how Democratic governors are standing up to Trump and his policies, exemplifying successful leadership, and shaping our party’s future. 

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